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In its talks with the Biden administration, the Saudis, for now, are not focused on what they might seek from the Israelis for the Palestinians but on what they hope to get from the United States to go ahead with the breakthrough-a formal security commitment, access to the most advanced weaponry, a partnership in developing its civil nuclear industry, and a free trade agreement. The deteriorating situation in the West Bank could threaten a deal between the Saudis and Israelis. It is smart to do so Saudi-Israeli peace would change the landscape fundamentally in the Middle East, aligning nonrevisionist states that are also attempting to build resilient, successful economies for the 21st century against Iran’s axis of failed or failing states. At times, that is likely to require a major push, and that is what the White House is doing as it seeks to produce a breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Israel. To forestall this, the Biden administration will have to raise the level of its diplomacy in the Middle East. In addition to the harm this situation causes Palestinians and Israelis, the evolving climate will likely undermine the Biden administration’s main objective in the Middle East right now: a breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But if the PA won’t, or can’t, act to limit the development of terrorist infrastructure or attacks against Israelis, Israel will continue to carry out such operations, increasing the chances of widespread instability and even the collapse of the Palestinian Authority. Israeli operations such as this one weaken it further, highlighting its irrelevancy. The deeper problem is the weakening of the Palestinian Authority, which lacks popular legitimacy for many reasons, including widespread corruption, poor governance, the unwillingness to hold elections, a sclerotic political system that blocks any advance of younger potential leaders, and the absence of any real political vision or achievements vis-à-vis the Israelis.
The current Israeli operation is unlikely to change this reality in the West Bank even leaders of the Israeli security establishment acknowledge that without the PA security forces reasserting themselves, the most that this operation will buy is a few months. That is hardly good news for the Palestinian Authority (PA) or for Israel.Īs the PA has become weaker, a vacuum has developed in the West Bank-and Iran, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad have rushed to fill it with money, arms, and explosives. For some time now, Jenin, along with other areas in the West Bank, has become an area where the Palestinian Authority security forces choose not to venture. Israel just carried out its largest military operation in the West Bank since the peak years of the Second Intifada between 20.
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